At best, the presumptuous term “future antique” is wishful thinking, and at worst, it's woefully inaccurate. Conceptually, though, it is no different than any other type of speculation. According to economist Benjamin Graham, a speculative investment is one that promises neither “safety of principal” nor “a satisfactory return.”
So what might qualify as a future antique? It depends on who you ask, and there is no wrong answer -- at least, not today; in a few years there will be plenty, and scattered within the myriad of wrong picks, you’ll find a select few spectacularly right ones.
There is no surefire formula for snatching up those select few, but by applying some basic concepts relating to the collectibles market, such as quality and scarcity, you certainly stand a better chance. In the end, the true definition of a future antique lies with the beholder and his speculative skills, while its ultimate value remains in the hands of an unreliable and subjective collectibles market.
To that end, what follows is just such a speculative effort. It does not constitute investment advice. The reader should apply his own due diligence towards ascertaining whether or not an article might serve as a good investment for the future.
Harry Potter memorabilia
The full cultural impact of J.K. Rowling’s successful series of novels about the boy wizard will not be known for some time, and when it is better understood, it will fill volumes and volumes. In the meantime, it’s a merchandising bonanza in which very few product groups have yet to greet the consumer with the likes of Harry’s safe, inoffensive mug (condoms, menthol cigarettes and crack pipes come to mind). For your remaining needs, the Potter machine’s got you covered.Finding a viable future antique among this seething heap of mass-produced trinkets will not be easy. In general, sticking to rare, unique and even oddball items while avoiding (with some exceptions) limited or collector’s editions unless they’re limited to 100 units or fewer will probably provide the best results.
In the mass-produced aisle, the marriage of Potter to big toy industry names like LEGO and Mattel offers itself as a reasonable investment only if the item remains factory-sealed. Naturally, you’re banking on the seven million other sets to be torn open and played with to virtual worthlessness.
Ostensibly, items directly associated with the characters or with Rowling herself (unique autographs, props from the films, etc.) would perform best, but don’t overlook some of the myriad minor players in the series, such as original prints issued by illustrator Mary GrandPré. Sure, today fans and collectors are interested in -- obsessed with, rather -- every Harry nook and Potter cranny, and they’re likely to buy a lot of different items.
Time will not be kind to all of them. As public interest fades (and it will), the prominent collectibles get treated with a measure of respect, while the lesser items suffer in damp garages or find their way into the trash. To that end, if you can start to look past your own low interest in some items and start to see them rotting by the thousands in garbage dumps, you’re developing a good eye for future antiques.
Finally, look to the fringes for other finds. For example, maybe the print run for the anti-Potter documentary Witchcraft Repackaged -- Making Evil Look Innocent was as excruciatingly small and insignificant as the opposition itself. In that case, such a documentary and other related items could in time lead to the darling profits you dreamed about.
Autographs of the reclusive
Living actors and other celebrities whose autographs are not easy to obtain for whatever reason have great potential as future antiques. This is especially true if they’re more than a simple signed photo, or bear some greater historical significance.The reclusive lifestyle of novelist Thomas Pynchon has given signed copies of his novels both scarcity and high value. For example, a signed copy of Gravity’s Rainbow can run into the low thousands of dollars. The same holds true for mega-recluse J.D. Salinger and an autographed copy of Catcher in the Rye (up to $30,000). The inherent risk is obvious: The day after you drop your life savings on one of these books, the authors could decide to go on a signing spree and sign every copy they can find, effectively wiping out their value.
This is unlikely, but it’s part of the risk, and on the deaths of these men, it’s possible the values could skyrocket. Still, a wiser idea is to look at which celebrities shun signing autographs and then make an effort to vend desirable autographs from them. For example, Cameron Diaz and Barry Bonds are notoriously poor signers.
Finally, pay close attention to whatever the autograph is on. Autograph books are for kids; as the homes of autographs meant to be future antiques, they’re disastrous.
Investment-grade wine
As an investment in older vintages, wine has performed pretty well but even the casual collector should obtain a copy of The Wine Price File, the industry standard for wine prices going back to the early 18th century.However, as a future antique and the object of speculation, so-called investment grade wines will typically present the least amount of risk early on. A wine is considered investment-grade on meeting four criteria: Collectors desire it to some degree, its maturity plateau is 20 years or more, its vintage is well-regarded, and it scores a 94 or higher on Robert Parker’s 100-point rating system.
First editions
Generally, but not always, a first edition (book, record, comic) will prove to be the more profitable collectible for a variety of reasons, but chiefly because the first of anything is typically the most desirable, and often, low initial print runs make them scarce. That scarcity is augmented if it only became popular many years later, as many of those original copies will have disappeared.In books, first editions of classics hold their value well, but the notion of “future antiques” is to spot the future classics. As difficult as it is to believe, in 1997, the initial hardcover UK print run of unknown author J.K. Rowling's Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone was a mere 500 copies. Today, copies from that print run sell for up to $60,000. Richard Davies of AbeBooks.com calls it “one of the most sought-after contemporary items in the rare book world."
An even more recent example is also out of the UK. In 2005, unknown writers Roderick Jordon and Brian Williams self-published their co-written novel, The Highfield Mole, producing 700 copies in total. Word about the book spread and in the spring of 2007, a major house re-published it. Collectors began scrambling to obtain one of the original copies. Today, some special copies are selling for over $6,000.
So, how do you spot the next Harry Potter? When you find out, keep it a secret. Until then, buying up dozens of first-run copies of forgettable books in the hopes that one of the authors will become the next J.K. Rowling is probably not terribly cost-effective, but that’s speculation -- you never really know anything, but you pretend to know just enough.
High-end limited editions
In contrast to many of the other items mentioned thus far, high-end limited editions call for a substantial investment up front -- typically a few thousand dollars or more -- but the craftsmanship, as well as the materials often used, justify the expense (for some people). Additionally, such products are released in truly limited editions; not 1,000 or even 100, but sometimes as few as 10.20ltd.com is virtually alone in this field. They seek out top brands and designers for items including a $730 Noel Stewart silk hat for men, an $11,645 handmade Speake-Marin watch, and the F131 Hellcat Combat motorcycle designed and built by Confederate Motorcycle in Alabama. Innovation and craftsmanship lie under every polished bolt, and the sleek body design, along with state of the art mechanics, may or may not justify the $79,289 price tag alone. However, production was limited to only 20; furthermore, it’s such a radically unique looking bike -- half-throwback, half science fiction -- that it won’t appeal to everyone, and may take years to be fully appreciated.
future earners
At the end of the day, seeking future antiques is not right for everyone, so it should be rewarding beyond profit. You’re buying low with an intention of selling high… but you may have to wait 10 or 20 years for that time to come, if it ever does.http://en.wikipedia.org/
http://www.autographcollector.com/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
http://www.abebooks.com/
http://www.20ltd.com/pws/Home.ice
http://www.confederate.com/
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